摘要
本文首先在代际预算约束下推导出经常项目赤字可持续的充分条件。据此条件建立了含有单位根过程的两状态门限模型检验1947-2006年间美国经常项目赤字的持续性。实证结果表明美国经常项目赤字序列具有明显的非线性门限效应,结合两门限区制样本的分布特点,认为1947-1983年间美国经常项目赤字可持续,但自1983年尤其是1998年后美国经常项目赤字难以持续。
The sufficient condition which current account deficit is sustainable is deduced under the inter-temporal budget constraint,on which this paper develops a two-threshold model to study U.S.current account deficit sustainability during 1947-2006.The results show that the time series of current account deficit presents the obvious threshold characteristics,and the time series of current account deficit is globally stationary but locally non-stationary.According to the distributed characteristics on two regimes...
关键词
门限模型
代际预算约束
美国经常项目赤字持续性
threshold model
the inter-temporal budget constraint
U.S.current account deficit sustainability
