摘要
文章基于内蒙古精细化格点气象要素预报,采用普通克里格、反距离加权、双线性插值法,优选气温和相对湿度的最优插值方法,制作站点预报并检验。结果表明:(1)对气温和相对湿度应用效果最好的插值法分别是双线性插值法和普通克里格法;(2)08时起报当天气温和相对湿度的预报效果均好于前一日20时起报预报,日最高气温预报准确率最高,为77.83%,预报与实况相关系数达到0.8211,日最低气温、日平均气温及日平均相对湿度相关系数达到0.6以上;(3)高温预报值总体小于实况值,08时预报准确率为70%~93.94%,20时预报准确率为54.55%~93.33%。
Based on the grid weather element prediction in Inner Mongolia,the optimal interpolation method of temperature and relative humidity is optimized by using ordinary Kriging,inverse distance weighting and bilinear interpolation method,then using the best interpolation method make site prediction products and test them.The results demonstrates that:(1)Bilinear performs better for interpolation of temperature;for the relative humidity,the ordinary Kriging method has the best interpolation accuracy.(2)The forecast effect of temperature and relative humidity on the day of at 08 o’clock is better than that of the previous day at 20 o’clock.The highest accuracy of daily maximum temperature is 77.83%,which is the highest accuracy.The correlation coefficient of forecast and live is 0.8211.The correlation coefficients of daily minimum temperature,daily average temperature and daily relative humidity were all above 0.6.(3)The overall forecast value is smaller than the actual value at the site temperature forecast when in high temperature,the accuracy of the 08-time forecast is 70%~93.94%,the accuracy of the 20-time forecast is 54.55%~93.33%.
作者
斯琴
马学峰
Siqin;Ma Xuefeng(Inner Mongolia Meteorological Observatory,Inner Mongolia Hohhot 010051)
出处
《内蒙古气象》
2020年第1期8-13,22,共7页
Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia
基金
内蒙古气象局创新项目(nmqxkjcx201917).
关键词
格点预报
插值方法
温度
相对湿度
检验
Gridded forecasts
Interpolation method
Tempetature
Relative humidity
Test
