摘要
[目的]文章基于DSSAT-SUBSTOR作物生长模型,分析1961—2017年东北三省马铃薯种植区域内均匀分布的21个国家气象局气象观测站点马铃薯的潜在单产的变化特征及气候因子对潜在单产的影响。[方法]首先,基于东北三省马铃薯种植区域内均匀分布的21个国家气象局气象观测站点1961—2017年逐日气象数据,运用验证后的DSSAT-SUBSTOR模型模拟该时段站点位置马铃薯潜在单产;然后运用灰色关联法提取影响马铃薯潜在单产的优势气象因子;最后运用多元回归分析方法揭示主要优势气象因子对潜在单产的影响程度,分析马铃薯潜在单产及其气候影响因子的时空差异性。[结果](1)1961—2017年东北三省国家气象局站点马铃薯潜在单产均呈减少趋势,潜在单产最低和最高的站点分别是五大连池和梅河口,变化最小和最大的站点分别是兴城和绥芬河;(2)1961—2017年黑龙江省增温幅度最大,吉林省气温日较差降低最多,辽宁省日辐射量减少最明显;研究区生长季平均温的升高、气温日较差的降低以及辐射量的减少均导致马铃薯潜在单产降低,其中,平均温度是对研究区马铃薯潜在单产减产贡献最大的气象因子;对平均温度、气温日较差和日辐射量最敏感的站点分别是五大连池、公主岭和瓦房店。[结论]东北三省地区已进入气候暖干化阶段,在今后的马铃薯生产中应通过适时调整播期、培育或引进适应气候变化的新品种等科学农田管理措施,充分利用气候资源、提高马铃薯生产力水平。
This research aims to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the potential yields of potatoes due to climate from 1961 to 2017 by using the DSSAT-SUBSTOR crop growth model with data from 21 uniformly distributed meteorological observation stations of National Meteorological Administration in potato planting areas in the three provinces of Northeast China.The present study first used the verified DSSAT-SUBSTOR model to simulate the potential yield of potatoes from 1961 to 2017 by using daily meteorological data at the 21 stations.The dominant climatic factors of the potential yield were then extracted by using the gray correlation method.Multiple regression was subsequently used to reveal the degree of influence of dominant meteorological factors on potential yield,to determine the spatial and temporal differences of the dominant influenced factors and their impact on the spatial and temporal variations of potential yields of potatoes.The results were showed as follows.Firstly,the potential yields of the stations tested all decreased from 1961 to 2017.The stations with the lowest and highest potential yields were Wudalianchi and Meihekou,respectively,and the stations with the smallest and largest yield changes were Suifenhe and Xingcheng,respectively.Secondly,between 1961 and 2017,Heilongjiang province had the greatest increase in temperature;Jilin province had the greatest decrease in diurnal temperature range;and Liaoning province had the greatest decrease in daily radiation.The increase in the average temperature of the growing season,the decrease of diurnal temperature range,and the reduction in radiation all led to a reduction in potential yields of potatoes in the study area.Among them,the average temperature was the meteorological factor that contributed the most to the potential yield reduction in the three provinces.The stations most sensitive to average temperature,diurnal temperature range and daily radiation were Wudalianchi,Gongzhuling and Wafangdian,respectively.In summary,the results shows t
作者
徐瑞阳
何英彬
赵锡海
罗善军
杨近鹏
于金宽
朱娅秋
赵畅
李志强
Xu Ruiyang;He Yingbin;Zhao Xihai;Luo Shanjun;Yang Jinpeng;Yu Jinkuan;Zhu Yaqiu;Zhao Chang;Li Zhiqiang(Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,Hubei,China;School of Economics and Management,Tiangong University,Tianjin 300387,China)
出处
《中国农业资源与区划》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第12期102-114,共13页
Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“基于动态过程导向的马铃薯种植适宜性时空精细化评价研究”(41771562)
中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所创新工程(2016-2020)
关键词
DSSAT模型
潜在单产
东北三省
马铃薯
气象因子
DSSAT model
potential yield
three northeastern provinces
potato
meteorological factors
