摘要
在中国新发展阶段,工业化阶段的演进使制造业进入了高质量发展的阶段。在中等收入阶段,制造业增加值和TFP较快增长,促进了GDP增长和整个经济TFP增长,成为大国经济顺利进入高收入阶段的重要原因。参考高收入大国在中等收入阶段结束时的制造业平均比重以及经济发展质量较高的历史经验,同时考虑到制造业与服务业融合发展对产业结构变动所具有的一定调节作用,中国在进入高收入阶段前后的一段时期,制造业占GDP比重应保持在28%至30%之间。借鉴其他大国在中等收入阶段普遍实施制造业发展战略和促进政策的经验,中国"十四五"时期应加强对制造业发展的政策导向,研究制定促进制造业发展的中长期战略规划,依靠推动制造业高质量发展带动制造业中高速增长。
Industrial evolution has ushered in a high-quality developmental stage for manufacturing industry in China’s new stage of development.In the middle-income period of an economy,the growth in GDP and Total Factor Productivity(TFP)of the entire economy is generally driven by the rapid growth of manufacturing valueadded and TFP.This has been the major factor for the smooth entry into high-income stage for a large economy.Based on the historical experience of the average share of manufacturing of the high-income large countries in their end period of middle-income stage with a relatively high quality economic development,and taking into account the adjustment effect of integrated development of manufacturing and services on changes in industrial structure,we argue that around the period when China enters the high-income stage,the share of manufacturing in GDP should remain between 28 percent and 30 percent.In their middle-income stage,other large countries had all implemented development strategies and promotion policies for their manufacturing sector.Drawing on this experience,China should strengthen its policy guidance for manufacturing development during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period,study and formulate medium-and long-term strategic plans to promote the development of manufacturing,so that a middle or high speed growth can be maintained with the support of its high quality development.
作者
郭克莎
彭继宗
Guo Kesha;Peng Jizong
出处
《中国社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第5期128-149,207,共23页
Social Sciences in China
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“从制造向服务转型过程中二三产业统筹协调发展的重大问题研究”(20&ZD087)阶段性成果
